Physical, biological and anthropogenic drivers of spatial patterns of coral reef fish assemblages at regional and local scales.

Species abundance, diversity and community assemblage structure are determined by multiple physical, habitat and management drivers that operate across multiple spatial scales. Here we used a multi-scale coral reef monitoring dataset to examine regional and local differences in the abundance, species richness and composition of fish assemblages in no-take marine reserve (NTMR) and fished zones at four island groups in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. We applied boosted regression trees to quantify the influence of 20 potential drivers on the coral reef fish assemblages. Reefs in two locations, Magnetic Island and the Keppel Islands, had distinctive fish assemblages and low species richness, while the Palm and Whitsunday Islands had similar species composition and higher species richness. Overall, our analyses identified several important physical (temperature, wave exposure) and biological (coral, turf, macroalgal and unconsolidated substratum cover) drivers of inshore reef fish communities, some of which are being altered by human activities. Of these, sea surface temperature (SST) was more influential at large scales, while wave exposure was important both within and between island groups. Species richness declined with increasing macroalgal cover and exposure to cyclones, and increased with SST. Species composition was most strongly influenced by mean SST and percent cover of macroalgae. There was substantial regional variation in the local drivers of spatial patterns. Although NTMR zoning influenced total fish density in some regions, it had negligible effects on fish species richness, composition and trophic structure because of the relatively small number of species targeted by the fishery. These findings show that inshore reef fishes are directly influenced by disturbances typical of the nearshore Great Barrier Reef, highlighting the need to complement global action on climate change with more targeted localised efforts to maintain or improve the condition of coral reef habitats.

Mesophotic benthic communities associated with a submerged palaeoshoreline in Western Australia.

Key ecological features (KEFs) are elements of Australia's Commonwealth marine environment considered to be important for biodiversity or ecosystem function, yet many KEFs are poorly researched, which can impede effective decision-making about future development and conservation. This study investigates a KEF positioned over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shoreline on the northwest shelf of Australia (known as the 'Ancient Coastline at ~125m depth contour'; AC125). Seafloor bathymetry, sedimentology and benthic habitats were characterised within five study areas using multibeam sonar, sediment samples and towed video imagery. Direct evidence for the existence of a palaeoshoreline formed during the LGM was not found, however candidate areas to find palaeoshoreline material at or just below the modern seabed were discovered. Approximately 98% of the seabed surveyed was comprised of unconsolidated soft sediment habitat (mud/sand/silt) supporting negligible epibenthic biota. The prevalence of soft sediment suggests that post-glacial sediments have infilled parts of the palaeoshoreline, with cross-shelf, probably tidal currents in the northern section of the study area responsible for some of the sediment mobilisation and southern study areas more influenced by oceanic conditions. Within study areas, total biotic cover ranged from 0.02% to 1.07%. Of the biota encountered, most comprised filter feeder organisms (including gorgonians, sponges, and whip corals) whose distribution was associated with pockets of consolidated hard substrate. Benthic community composition varied with both study area and position in relation to the predicted AC125. In general, consolidated substrate was proportionally higher in water shallower than the AC125 compared to on the AC125 or deeper than the AC125. Spatially continuous maps of predicted benthic habitat classes (pre-determined benthic communities) in each study area were developed to characterise biodiversity. Spatial modelling corroborated depth and large-scale structural complexity of the seafloor as surrogates for predicting likely habitat class. This study provides an important assessment of the AC125 and shows that if a distinct coastline exists in the areas we surveyed, it is now largely buried and as such does not provide a unique hard substrate habitat. However, much work remains to fully locate and map the ancient coastline within the vast region of the AC125 and additional surveys in shallow waters adjacent to the AC125 may identify whether some sections lie outside the currently defined KEF.

Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs.

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone-prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises.

Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs.

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef-building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad-scale climate-related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.

Long-term dynamics and drivers of coral and macroalgal cover on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40-50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12-18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.

Sources, presence and potential effects of contaminants of emerging concern in the marine environments of the Great Barrier Reef and Torres Strait, Australia.

Current policy and management for marine water quality in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in north-eastern Australia primarily focusses on sediment, nutrients and pesticides derived from diffuse source pollution related to agricultural land uses. In addition, contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are known to be present in the marine environments of the GBR and the adjacent Torres Strait (TS). Current and projected agricultural, urban and industrial developments are likely to increase the sources and diversity of CECs being released into these marine ecosystems. In this review, we evaluate the sources, presence and potential effects of six different categories of CECs known to be present, or likely to be present, in the GBR and TS marine ecosystems. Specifically, we summarize available monitoring, source and effect information for antifouling paints; coal dust and particles; heavy/trace metals and metalloids; marine debris and microplastics; pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs); and petroleum hydrocarbons. Our study highlights the lack of (available) monitoring data for most of these CECs, and recommends: (i) the inclusion of all relevant environmental data into integrated databases for building marine baselines for the GBR and TS regions, and (ii) the implementation of local, targeted monitoring programs informed by predictive methods for risk prioritization. Further, our spatial representation of the known and likely sources of these CECs will contribute to future ecological risk assessments of CECs to the GBR and TS marine environments, including risks relative to those identified for sediment, nutrients and pesticides.

Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

High-resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes on the Great Barrier Reef, 1985-2017.

This data compilation synthesizes 36 static environmental and spatial variables, and temporally explicit modeled estimates of three major disturbances to coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): (1) coral bleaching, (2) tropical cyclones, and (3) outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster cf. solaris. Data are provided on a standardized grid (0.01° × 0.01° ~ 1 × 1 km) for reef locations along the GBR, containing 15,928 pixels and excluding the northernmost sections (<12° S) where empirical data were sparse. This compilation provides a consistent and high-resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes for GBR reef locations at a fine spatial scale to be used in the development of complex ecosystem models. Static estimates of environmental variables (e.g., depth, bed shear stress, average temperature, temperature variation) originally developed by the Commonwealth of Australia's Environment Research Facility (CERF) Marine Biodiversity Hub were provided by Geoscience Australia. Annual (1985-2017) disturbance estimates were either interpolated from empirical data (A. cf. solaris), predicted from proxy indicators (e.g., degree heating weeks [DHW] as a proxy for bleaching severity), or explicitly modeled (e.g., wave height model for each cyclone). This data set synthesizes some of the most recent advances in remote sensing and modeling of environmental conditions on the GBR; yet it is not exhaustive and we highlight areas that should be expanded through future research. The characterization of abiotic and disturbance regimes presented here represent an essential tool for the development of complex regional scale models of the GBR; preventing redundancy between working groups and promoting collaboration, innovation, and consistency. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article and/or the articles cited in the reference section, recognizing the work that went into compiling the data together and the original authors' willingness to make it publicly available.

Cryptic lineages in the Wolf Cardinalfish living in sympatry on remote coral atolls.

Coral reef health and biodiversity is under threat worldwide due to rapid climate change. However, much of the inter- and intra-specific diversity of coral reefs are undescribed even in well studied taxa such as fish. Delimiting previously unrecognised diversity is important for understanding the processes that generate and sustain biodiversity in coral reef ecosystems and informing strategies for their conservation and management. Many taxa that inhabit geographically isolated coral reefs rely on self-recruitment for population persistence, providing the opportunity for the evolution of unique genetic lineages through divergent selection and reproductive isolation. Many such lineages in corals and fish are morphologically similar or indistinguishable. Here, we report the discovery and characterisation of cryptic lineages of the Wolf Cardinalfish, Cheilodipterus artus, from the coral atolls of northwest Australia using multiple molecular markers from mitochondrial (CO1 and D-loop) and nuclear (microsatellites) DNA. Concordant results from all markers identified two highly divergent lineages that are morphologically cryptic and reproductively isolated. These lineages co-occurred at daytime resting sites, but the relative abundance of each lineage was strongly correlated with wave exposure. It appears, therefore, that fish from each lineage are better adapted to different microhabitats. Such cryptic and ecologically based diversity appears to be common in these atolls and may well aid resilience of these systems. Our results also highlight that underwater surveys based on visual identification clearly underestimate biodiversity, and that a taxonomic revision of the Cheilodipterus genus is necessary.

Genetic signatures through space, time and multiple disturbances in a ubiquitous brooding coral.

The predominance of self-recruitment in many reef-building corals has fundamental and complex consequences for their genetic diversity, population persistence and responses to climate change. Knowledge of genetic structure over local scales needs to be placed within a broad spatial context, and also integrated with genetic monitoring through time to disentangle these consequences. Here, we examined patterns of genetic diversity over multiple spatio-temporal scales across tropical Australia in the ubiquitous brooding coral, Seriatopora hystrix. We also analysed complimentary environmental and demographic data to elucidate the seascape drivers of these patterns. Large genetic differences were detected between the east vs. west coasts of Australia. In northwest Australia, geographic differentiation dominated genetic structure over multiple scales. However, three sympatric lineages were detected at the largest offshore reef system (Scott Reef). Similar to the differences observed among putative species in eastern Australia, these lineages were associated with different levels of wave exposure. Local genetic structure within the Scott Reef system was relatively stable over 10 years, but temporal differences were observed that reflected small but important genetic changes over a few generations during recovery after severe bleaching. These results highlight the importance of self-recruitment together with occasional longer distance connectivity for the persistence of a metapopulation across spatially and temporally variable environments. Our multidimensional research provides a foundation for further long-term genetic monitoring to inform conservation strategies and highlights that sampling scales, ecological effects and cryptic diversity are important considerations to develop realistic understanding of the evolutionary resilience of corals.

A workflow for improving estimates of microplastic contamination in marine waters: A case study from North-Western Australia.

Plastic pollution is ubiquitous throughout the marine environment, with microplastic (i.e. <5 mm) contamination a global issue of emerging concern. The lack of universally accepted methods for quantifying microplastic contamination, including consistent application of microscopy, photography, an spectroscopy and photography, may result in unrealistic contamination estimates. Here, we present and apply an analysis workflow tailored to quantifying microplastic contamination in marine waters, incorporating stereomicroscopic visual sorting, microscopic photography and attenuated total reflectance (ATR) Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The workflow outlines step-by-step processing and associated decision making, thereby reducing bias in plastic identification and improving confidence in contamination estimates. Specific processing steps include (i) the use of a commercial algorithm-based comparison of particle spectra against an extensive commercially curated spectral library, followed by spectral interpretation to establish the chemical composition, (ii) a comparison against a customised contaminant spectral library to eliminate procedural contaminants, and (iii) final assignment of particles as either natural- or anthropogenic-derived materials, based on chemical type, a compare analysis of each particle against other particle spectra, and physical characteristics of particles. Applying this workflow to 54 tow samples collected in marine waters of North-Western Australia visually identified 248 potential anthropogenic particles. Subsequent ATR-FTIR spectroscopy, chemical assignment and visual re-inspection of photographs established 144 (58%) particles to be of anthropogenic origin. Of the original 248 particles, 97 (39%) were ultimately confirmed to be plastics, with 85 of these (34%) classified as microplastics, demonstrating that over 60% of particles may be misidentified as plastics if visual identification is not complemented by spectroscopy. Combined, this tailored analysis workflow outlines a consistent and sequential process to quantify contamination by microplastics and other anthropogenic microparticles in marine waters. Importantly, its application will contribute to more realistic estimates of microplastic contamination in marine waters, informing both ecological risk assessments and experimental concentrations in effect studies.

Disturbance Is an Important Driver of Clonal Richness in Tropical Seagrasses.

Clonality is common in many aquatic plant species, including seagrasses, where populations are maintained through a combination of asexual and sexual reproduction. One common measure used to describe the clonal structure of populations is clonal richness. Clonal richness is strongly dependent on the biological characteristics of the species, and how these interact with the environment but can also reflect evolutionary scale processes especially at the edge of species ranges. However, little is known about the spatial patterns and drivers of clonal richness in tropical seagrasses. This study assessed the spatial patterns of clonal richness in meadows of three tropical seagrass species, Thalassia hemprichii, Halodule uninervis, and Halophila ovalis, spanning a range of life-history strategies and spatial scales (2.5-4,711 km) in Indonesia and NW Australia. We further investigated the drivers of clonal richness using general additive mixed models for two of the species, H. uninervis and H. ovalis, over 8° latitude. No significant patterns were observed in clonal richness with latitude, yet disturbance combined with sea surface temperature strongly predicted spatial patterns of clonal richness. Sites with a high probability of cyclone disturbance had low clonal richness, whereas an intermediate probability of cyclone disturbance and the presence of dugong grazing combined with higher sea surface temperatures resulted in higher levels of clonal richness. We propose potential mechanisms for these patterns related to the recruitment and mortality rates of individuals as well as reproductive effort. Under a changing climate, increased severity of tropical cyclones and the decline in populations of mega-grazers have the potential to reduce clonal richness leading to less genetically diverse populations.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs.

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching.

Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation.

The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes.

The world's coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world's most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985-2012), we show a major decline in coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y(-1)), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y(-1) mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y(-1), demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y(-1), despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.

Should we protect the strong or the weak? Risk, resilience, and the selection of marine protected areas.

It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? We first defined this problem mathematically for 2 alternate conservation objectives. We then analytically solved this problem for both objectives and determined under which conditions each of the different protection strategies was optimal. If the conservation objective was to maximize the chance of having at least 1 healthy site, then the best strategy was protection of the site at lowest risk. On the other hand, if the goal was to maximize the expected number of healthy sites, the optimal strategy was more complex. If protected sites were likely to spend a significant amount of time in a degraded state, then it was best to protect low-risk sites. Alternatively, if most areas were generally healthy then, counterintuitively, it was best to protect sites at higher risk. We applied these strategies to a situation of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. With regard to the risk of cyclone disturbance, the optimal reef to protect differed dramatically, depending on the expected speed of reef recovery of both protected and unprotected reefs. An adequate consideration of risk is fundamental to all conservation actions and can indicate surprising routes to conservation success.

Geographic Information Systems and travel health.

Questions dealing with space and/or location have always been integral to understanding and addressing health issues, such as charting the spread of a disease. Health researchers have traditionally used paper maps to explore the spatial dimensions of health. However, due to advances in technology, it is now possible to ask such questions using a suite of computer-based methods and tools that are collectively known as a Geographic Information System (GIS).